Handgun Combatives….Dave Spaulding
More on the ammo shortage from a few folks I really respect. All
are commenting on an article from FORBES Magazine that I will link at the end.
Admittedly, I don't know what is up and I think Rich and Michael have probably
hit on in in the "perfect storm" theory. All I know is I want the
damn situation to pass!! While I never liked the government purchase theory,
this administration has made me quite uncomfortable with their actions to
reengineer our society. These guys dismiss that idea which makes me feel better
since they are on the inside of the industry more that I am these days. While
filming the Ruger TV Show RUGER INSIDE AND OUT this past summer, I did speak
with Steve Hornady and he confirmed pretty much what Michael says here:
From TACTICAL WIRE Editor Rich Grassi:
All the ammo insanity over the past year and you'd think people would calm down. The link is to a decent piece on ammo supply along with input from manufacturers and NICS data. NRA posted it on bookface. So, what are the comments?
"Ammo companies are like big oil, limiting supply to drive up prices."
"FEMA bought (fill in the blank) millions of rounds, what do they need it for?"
Blah - blah.
This comment was interesting:
"Walmarts in my area get shipments twice a week. LARGE shipments. People are lined up and buy the shelves bare almost immediately. Stop with the soldiers conspiracy crap. They're not government robots, they have families too. None of them are buying it up for the freaking base you idiots, they're buying a ton of it for the same purpose as you: personal stockpile.
"I was just at my local Walmart. It's a large one and very busy. And they had plenty of .45, .40, .380, .223, and 9mm. The shelves are empty because they only get two shipments a week and sell out fast to people who know the shipping schedule."
From writer, trainer and shooter Mark Moritz, the man who coined the ultimate truth "The first rule of gun fighting is to have a gun!" :
"OK, I never believed the conspiracy stuff, but the article still does not explain the shortage.
“There are more new gun owners.”
Fine. But there is a difference between “gun owners” and “shooters.” I have several friends who are first-time gun owners. They buy two boxes of ammunition, one for familiarization/practice (because who needs more than one box?), and one to keep in case they need to defend themselves. That’s it. (One of my friends made a point of buying hardball for his new 9mm pistol. He didn’t want to buy hollow points, because “I don’t want to kill anybody!”) How many of those non-shooting new gun owners does it take to offset guys like us, who actually shoot a lot? I’m shooting a whole lot less than I ever have. All my friends who are shooters are shooting a whole lot less. Those of you on this email list; aren’t you buying a lot less ammo than you used to? I used to buy a case of ammo about every other month, say six cases a year. That stopped last December, when every online ammo seller suddenly was out of stock. If we, the people who used to burn through thousands of rounds a year, have reduced our shooting (and eliminated our buying), how many new gun owners, with their 100-round “hoards,” does it take to make up for us? It doesn’t compute.
“Stores get ammo, and hoarders buy it up immediately.”
OK, I have seen that happen. I have stood in line at WalMart at 7 a.m., waiting for the chance to buy three boxes of ammo. I have been shut out when the people in front of me bought up all the .45 – 3 boxes at a time – before I got to the front of the line. However, since December, I have never, repeat never, seen them get .22LR. It’s not that they get .22 and people buy it as soon as it comes in – they don’t get .22, period. I know Federal and CCI say they are running 24 hours a day; I believe them. But the ammo is not getting to WalMart. It is not getting to the local gun stores. I repeat that they are not selling it as soon as they get it – they are not getting it. Just before the Connecticut shooting, I happened to order a couple bricks of Federal .22 from Midway, not to hoard, but just because I used to burn through a lot of .22, and I was getting low. It has been back-ordered since December, and the website still says “Date expected – unknown.” My consumption of .22 is way down, isn’t yours? My purchase of .22 is down to zero; isn’t yours? Regardless of how much Federal and CCI are producing, they are not shipping it to WalMart or Midway or Natchez Shooting Supply or any of the gun stores around here, are they? Same is true of practice .308. I see .223 come in at WalMart, and I see it get bought immediately, but I have never seen them get .308 FMJ.
So, where is the ammo going? I don’t know. I don’t have any theories. The “new gun owner” theory doesn’t persuade me, because those people don’t buy much ammo. The “stores sell it as soon as they get it” explains part, but not all – like .22 and .308.
The article is fine as far as it goes, but it doesn’t go very far. It does not explain the shortage."
From SHOOTING GALLERY host Michael Bane, who probably knows more industry people than anyone on the planet! :
"I've been saying for a while the only way the ammo shortage makes sense is as convergence, a perfect storm, if you will, of a number of major trends:
1) Increased number of shooters
2) Even though we are all shooting less, the larger majority of shooters are shooting more...we've been very successful in increasing the shooting sports, which has...duh!...resulted in a greater use of ammo than even a few years ago
3) The endless wars have leached a huge amount of ammo out of the marketplace
4) Even if the war stops tomorrow, the national reserves are pretty much down to zero and will have to be replenished
5) People are just plain scared about the future, and ammo is a tangible "prep" they can afford...this is a major net change in buying habits...people who once routinely bought 50 rounds of .22 now (when they can) buy a brick of 500, "just in case"
6) The world is unsettled; foreign ammo makers are getting large orders from countries ramping up for an uncertain future...some of the larger foreign makers are seeing larger civilian orders in their home countries, which have priority
7) There is greater competition for commodities used in ammunition manufacture from economies like China, India, Brazil, etc.
The great WW2 and Cold War hordes of surplus ammo in Europe are gone baby gone...we shot 'em up
9) Since we also bought guns to shoot up all that surplus ammo, we've now created additional markets for what we used to think of as "exotic" ammo, (5.45, anyone?) which puts more pressure on ammo makers to fill that void
10) Ammo makers have been at max capacity for some time now, and that puts huge pressure on both the machines and the work force...in a "just in time" environment, to doesn't take much to destabilize the system
11) And yes, people like me are HOARDING THE HELL out of ammo...get over it!"
The article from FORBES Magazine:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/frankminiter/2013/10/20/is-the-obama-administration-the-cause-of-gun-ammunition-shortages/
From TACTICAL WIRE Editor Rich Grassi:
All the ammo insanity over the past year and you'd think people would calm down. The link is to a decent piece on ammo supply along with input from manufacturers and NICS data. NRA posted it on bookface. So, what are the comments?
"Ammo companies are like big oil, limiting supply to drive up prices."
"FEMA bought (fill in the blank) millions of rounds, what do they need it for?"
Blah - blah.
This comment was interesting:
"Walmarts in my area get shipments twice a week. LARGE shipments. People are lined up and buy the shelves bare almost immediately. Stop with the soldiers conspiracy crap. They're not government robots, they have families too. None of them are buying it up for the freaking base you idiots, they're buying a ton of it for the same purpose as you: personal stockpile.
"I was just at my local Walmart. It's a large one and very busy. And they had plenty of .45, .40, .380, .223, and 9mm. The shelves are empty because they only get two shipments a week and sell out fast to people who know the shipping schedule."
From writer, trainer and shooter Mark Moritz, the man who coined the ultimate truth "The first rule of gun fighting is to have a gun!" :
"OK, I never believed the conspiracy stuff, but the article still does not explain the shortage.
“There are more new gun owners.”
Fine. But there is a difference between “gun owners” and “shooters.” I have several friends who are first-time gun owners. They buy two boxes of ammunition, one for familiarization/practice (because who needs more than one box?), and one to keep in case they need to defend themselves. That’s it. (One of my friends made a point of buying hardball for his new 9mm pistol. He didn’t want to buy hollow points, because “I don’t want to kill anybody!”) How many of those non-shooting new gun owners does it take to offset guys like us, who actually shoot a lot? I’m shooting a whole lot less than I ever have. All my friends who are shooters are shooting a whole lot less. Those of you on this email list; aren’t you buying a lot less ammo than you used to? I used to buy a case of ammo about every other month, say six cases a year. That stopped last December, when every online ammo seller suddenly was out of stock. If we, the people who used to burn through thousands of rounds a year, have reduced our shooting (and eliminated our buying), how many new gun owners, with their 100-round “hoards,” does it take to make up for us? It doesn’t compute.
“Stores get ammo, and hoarders buy it up immediately.”
OK, I have seen that happen. I have stood in line at WalMart at 7 a.m., waiting for the chance to buy three boxes of ammo. I have been shut out when the people in front of me bought up all the .45 – 3 boxes at a time – before I got to the front of the line. However, since December, I have never, repeat never, seen them get .22LR. It’s not that they get .22 and people buy it as soon as it comes in – they don’t get .22, period. I know Federal and CCI say they are running 24 hours a day; I believe them. But the ammo is not getting to WalMart. It is not getting to the local gun stores. I repeat that they are not selling it as soon as they get it – they are not getting it. Just before the Connecticut shooting, I happened to order a couple bricks of Federal .22 from Midway, not to hoard, but just because I used to burn through a lot of .22, and I was getting low. It has been back-ordered since December, and the website still says “Date expected – unknown.” My consumption of .22 is way down, isn’t yours? My purchase of .22 is down to zero; isn’t yours? Regardless of how much Federal and CCI are producing, they are not shipping it to WalMart or Midway or Natchez Shooting Supply or any of the gun stores around here, are they? Same is true of practice .308. I see .223 come in at WalMart, and I see it get bought immediately, but I have never seen them get .308 FMJ.
So, where is the ammo going? I don’t know. I don’t have any theories. The “new gun owner” theory doesn’t persuade me, because those people don’t buy much ammo. The “stores sell it as soon as they get it” explains part, but not all – like .22 and .308.
The article is fine as far as it goes, but it doesn’t go very far. It does not explain the shortage."
From SHOOTING GALLERY host Michael Bane, who probably knows more industry people than anyone on the planet! :
"I've been saying for a while the only way the ammo shortage makes sense is as convergence, a perfect storm, if you will, of a number of major trends:
1) Increased number of shooters
2) Even though we are all shooting less, the larger majority of shooters are shooting more...we've been very successful in increasing the shooting sports, which has...duh!...resulted in a greater use of ammo than even a few years ago
3) The endless wars have leached a huge amount of ammo out of the marketplace
4) Even if the war stops tomorrow, the national reserves are pretty much down to zero and will have to be replenished
5) People are just plain scared about the future, and ammo is a tangible "prep" they can afford...this is a major net change in buying habits...people who once routinely bought 50 rounds of .22 now (when they can) buy a brick of 500, "just in case"
6) The world is unsettled; foreign ammo makers are getting large orders from countries ramping up for an uncertain future...some of the larger foreign makers are seeing larger civilian orders in their home countries, which have priority
7) There is greater competition for commodities used in ammunition manufacture from economies like China, India, Brazil, etc.
The great WW2 and Cold War hordes of surplus ammo in Europe are gone baby gone...we shot 'em up
9) Since we also bought guns to shoot up all that surplus ammo, we've now created additional markets for what we used to think of as "exotic" ammo, (5.45, anyone?) which puts more pressure on ammo makers to fill that void
10) Ammo makers have been at max capacity for some time now, and that puts huge pressure on both the machines and the work force...in a "just in time" environment, to doesn't take much to destabilize the system
11) And yes, people like me are HOARDING THE HELL out of ammo...get over it!"
The article from FORBES Magazine:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/frankminiter/2013/10/20/is-the-obama-administration-the-cause-of-gun-ammunition-shortages/
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